Thailand is unlikely to regain its crown as the world's largest rice exporter this year due to the slower-than-expected global economic recovery and a dearth of positive factors.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said Thailand was expected to ship only 8.5 million tonnes this year, well below the 10-11 million tonnes projected by the Commerce Ministry.

"From the private sector's perspective, barring a serious outbreak of drought in India or China, we don't anticipate a situation that could drive rice exports to leapfrogging growth," he said.

In the first four months of this year, Thailand managed to export 2.4 million tonnes, a rise of 4% year-on-year.

But Mr Chookiat said rice shipments were expected to be inactive overall, particularly in the second and third quarters, due to the persistent global economic slowdown and lowered competitiveness of Thai rice.

Thai rice is now quoted at US$390-395 a tonne, while Indian grains stand at $360-365 a tonne and Vietnamese at $355-360.

Thailand lost its No.1 rice exporter status to India in 2012, while Vietnam rose to second place.

Despite a late surge by Thailand, India held onto the title last year, selling 11.3 million tonnes globally compared with 10.8 million tonnes for Thailand.

"Thailand's rice shipments should experience difficulty from now on, given the low demand and high competition," Mr Chookiat said.

"India is expected to retain the title again this year, as Vietnam itself is having trouble with its cross-border trade with China.

"Chinese authorities have released more state rice stocks to local traders for domestic sale and tightened controls on unofficial rice imports from Vietnam through border checkpoints."

As a result of these Chinese controls, Vietnam was able to export only 1.4 million tonnes in the first four months, a steep decline of 38% year-on-year.

Mr Chookiat said pressure from the government's massive rice stocks would also act to keep Thai rice prices down.

Source: Bangkok Post